Hi Kerry,
I still think everything's up in the air. Trump is a loose cannon and you never really know which way things will swing.
Besides, Ukraine's now firing American weapons into Russia. How this plays out is anyone's guess.
On the Middle East, it's an ever-evolving (and worsening) situation. The Israelis are now hitting civilians in Lebanon hard, which is drawing retaliation. I don't know how bad things will be by the time Trump gets into office.
On your points re Mexico and China, I would agree (esp with Trump's higher tariffs). But I think the transition to a green economy would've been delayed in any event. He wants to "drill. baby, drill" after all.
Thank you for reading once again,
Best wishes.